Technical analysis – Market pre-open 2nd February 2016
See previous comments. On Monday Aggressive Buying was marked again but the Value Area was narrower and Volume was below average. If ES prints below Monday’s session low (1912.50) post-open today then any ST positive implications of that green-at-top high would be negated and pre-open ES prints close to that level.
First Level Support = 1886.50 (min poc)
Second Level Support = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Key Chart: DIA probed 63.75, its major poc, this week but has so far not printed any time above it.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 28% (unch), Nasdaq 23% (from 24%), R2000 22% (from 24%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.29. On 12/29 the ratio reached 9.17. On 01/21 it fell to 3.52 which is as low as it has been for two years except for the sell-off late last year when the ratio fell to 3.00.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: Held the major Support at 105.00 following October’s decline and rallied. Now printing time well above 106.60 (18mn poc) in a stronger price location and futures today have printed the highest level since August.
Dollar Index: A probe in early December above the March high was rejected but if the chart can now hold the minor 1/2R (98.85) off that high I will look for a break higher.
Gold: has printed a 65day high today but is still in a LT weak price location.
Oil: rallied strongly off the low in January but is sharply lower this week and currently printing below the 1/2R off that low in a weak price location.
EURUSD: The rally from the November low app
