Pre-open Tuesday 23rd February
See previous comments. Monday’s session opened gap up with a new high for this rally and a fifth consecutive Value Area generated above the 1870 poc. Bulls would now want that level to hold. There is Resistance at 1956.90 which is the 1/2R off last year’s high.
First Level Support (minor) = ES 1886.50 (70 day poc)
Second Level Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Price momentum (PriceOsc) just turned positive on the SPY chart and breadth on the Pulse Chart is now positive. DIA printed yesterday’s bar above 164.25, its maj poc. Likewise QQQ, above its maj poc, 101.30. Stronger price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 44%), Nasdaq 38% (from 32%), R2000 40% (from 34%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was very slightly higher at 2.67. Friday’s ratio at 2.64 was the lowest since November 2012. On Monday, Bear Fund assets that I follow reached their highest level since late 2011.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: Held the major Support at 105.00 following October’s decline and rallied strongly. On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Futures indicate a lower open today.
Dollar Index: on 02/11 found Support at 95.22, the 12mn poc. Higher from there and Bulls would want to see that level hold. Resistance at 97.87, the 1/2R off this years high.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and now prints above 115.12, the 24mn poc, which is now Support.
Oil: is now printing above the minor 1/2R off the January low. Bulls (and equity Bulls) would want to see that level hold.
EURUSD: last week probed above 1.1241, the Major 1/2R, but is off that level and is now printing below 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low. Next Support is 1.0925, the 12mn poc, price printing time below that level would suggest a retest of that low.
