Technical analysis – Market pre-open 8th March 2016
Dayframe: During Monday’s session intraday Buyers were active, see highlighted numbers. However they only managed to generate an “inside” Value Area which was not an Effective performance in the dayframe. Significant Sellers have not yet been marked responding to these higher prices but overnight ES has printed as low as 1980.75, subsequently bouncing back to 1994,the 1/2R off Friday’s high. If price fails to print time back above that level post-open it may be the first sign of minor weakness.
Longframe: See previous, highlighted, comments. As long as ES holds above above 1956.90, the 1/2R off last year’s high it is in a LT strong price location.
First Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Second Level Support = ES 1886.50 (70 day poc)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Market Charts: all major Market Charts are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% (from 82%), Nasdaq 71% (from 66%), R2000 77% (from 71%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment : My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 3.46. The market was up strongly last week but the ratio fell. The rydex traders are being very slow to get on this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. Ten days ago the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level and printed a 24 day low on Monday.
Dollar Index: is today printing just below 97.40, the 2year poc. Time below this level would suggest further weakness. Price above 97.87, the 1/2R off November high, would be a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.12, the 24mn poc, which is now Support. On Friday cash gold printed its highest level since Feb 2015.
Oil: has today printed a two month high.
EURUSD: printing below 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low. Price below 1.0925, the 12mn poc
