Technical analysis – Market pre-open 9th March 2016
Dayframe: Post-open on Tuesday ES was not able to print above 1994, the v minor 1/2R off Friday’s high, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. That 1/2R has moved lower to 1991.75.
Longframe: See previous, highlighted, comments. As long as ES holds above above 1956.90, the 1/2R off last year’s high it is in a LT strong price location.
First Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Second Level Support = ES 1886.50 (70 day poc)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% (from 84%), Nasdaq 65% (from 71%), R2000 70% (from 77%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment : My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 4.08. The market was up strongly last week but the ratio fell. The rydex traders are being very slow to get on this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. Ten days ago the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds IEF, the 7-10 yr ETF: On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level and printed a 24 day low on Monday.
Dollar Index: is today printing just below 97.40, the 2year poc. Time below this level would suggest further weakness. Price above 97.87, the 1/2R off November high, would be a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.12, the 24mn poc, which is now Support. On Friday cash gold printed its highest level since Feb 2015.
Oil: on Tuesday printed a two month high but then sold off. Futures are higher today.
EURUSD: printing below 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low. Price below 1.0925, the 12mn poc would suggest a retest of last year’s low.
