Technical analysis – Market pre-open 17th March 2016
On Wednesday Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again as ES printed a new high for this rally. Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for twelve days. Buyers are still in control, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 1990.
First Level Support = 1990 (32day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 88% (from 84%), Nasdaq 70% (from 68%), R2000 74% (from 72%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.82. The rydex traders remain reluctant to back this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Support at 126.70 (1/2R level). Futures printed a 26day low on Monday and is printing close to that level.
Dollar Index: printing below 97.40, the 2year poc, in a weak price location and is now close to testing this year’s low at 95.24.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.50, the major poc, which is now Support. Higher on Wednesday.
Oil: has today printed a new 2month high
EURUSD: has found Support this week at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and printed a 23day high on Wednesday.
