Technical analysis – Market pre-open 21st March 2016
Note: I am now following the June contract. Last week’s data has been backfilled and shows The June contract from last Monday.
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked twice last week with ES printing a new high for this rally. Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for fourteen days.
Dayframe: See Friday’s highlighted comments. The front month on Friday was actually June and this contract has not yet exceeded price in the 2040s. Once again in the first hour post-open today I will be interested to see if Sellers respond at these levels. But Buyers are still in control on the evidence so far and as long as ES holds above 1990 it is in a strong price location on every timeframe.
First Level Support = 1990 (35day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Market Charts: All major Market charts are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 91%, Nasdaq 76%, R2000 81%, UK 73%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
03/18: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.78. The rydex traders remain reluctant to back this rally. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On 02/11 the chart spiked to a new high but is off that level. Support at 126.70 (1/2R level).
Dollar Index: last week printed a new low for the year. Printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly and is printing above 115.50, the major poc, which is now Support.
Oil: on Friday printed a new high for the year and its highest since early December.
EURUSD: found Support last week at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and is higher from there.
