Technical analysis – Market pre-open 24th March 2016
We have not seen a markable Selling response but ES has failed to print time above the mid 2040s area of price, see Friday’s highlighted comments. Intraday Sellers were active on Wednesday and a lower Value Area was generated and ninety minutes pre-open ES is printing below 2020. Until Significant Selling (red) is marked I assume Buyers are still in control and as long as ES holds above 1990 it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Dayframe: a minor (8day) poc has emerged at 2033.00 and price relative to that level can be used as a guide for ST strength/weakness. PriceOSC for all four major stock index ETFs is still a minor concern, as mentioned last week, see Friday’s comments.
First Level Support = 1990 (35day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 87% (from 90%), Nasdaq 70% (from 77%), R2000 73% (from 79%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was jumped higher to 4.65 from 3.84. The ratio is still low compared to levels seen last year but this is a 47day high. Largely due to Bear fund assets that I follow falling by 13%. This is a contrarian indicator. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – Last month and this TLT has held the Support at 126.70 (1/2R level), and is now printing above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: last week printed a new low for the year. Printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location but rallying this week.
Gold: is down this week but printing above 115.50, the major poc. This Support could be tested today.
Oil: USO is lower this week. First Level Support is at 9.23, 1/2R off the February low.
EURUSD: found Support last week at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and although lower this week is currently printing above that level.
