Technical analysis – Market pre-open 29th March 2016
See Monday’s highlighted comments. Monday’s session high found Resistance at the minor poc, 2033.00 and again overnight and pre-open is printing lower. With PriceOsc (although positive) still heading down for the four major stock index ETFs I woiuld want to see price printing time above ES 2033 before assuming higher in the ST. In the LT, until Significant Selling (red) is marked I assume Buyers are still in control and as long as ES holds above 1990 it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 1990 (36day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 87% (from 86%), Nasdaq 69% (from 72%), R2000 74% (from 75%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.89. The ratio is still low compared to levels seen last year but this is a 48 day high. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – has held the Support at 126.70 (1/2R level), and closed on Monday above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: rallied last week but is still printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD was down last week but held above 115.50, the major poc. Price below this level would be weaker price location.
Oil: USO First Level Support is at 9.23, 1/2R off the February low. Futures indicate a lower open today.
EURUSD: found Support recently
