Technical analysis – Market pre-open 1st April 2016
See Thursday’s highlighted comments. Sellers were active on Thursday but only an overlapping/slightly lower Value Area was generated so this was not convincingly Effective activity. Even so, by strictly appliying my rules, I had to mark Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). So far, this looks like normal corrective activity with Buyers Resting, probably ahead of the jobs data today (just released). ES is lower overnight but I would be more convinced that the Sellers were taking control if Significant Selling is marked below the minor (14day) poc at 2033.00
First Level Support = 1990 (38day poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 91% (from 90%), Nasdaq 78% (from 77%), R2000 84% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.66 having reached 4.89, a 48day high, earlier in the week. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
