Technical analysis – Market pre-open 11th April 2016
ES generated an overlapping Value Area on Friday and closed the sessioin at 2041.00, the 2mn poc. Price relative to this level could give an indication re ST strength/weakness at the start of this week with minor poc Resistance coming in atat 2057.00. One hour pre-open ES is printing just above 2050.
First Level Resistance = 2057.00 (minor poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1956.90 (1/2R off last year’s high)
Major Support (major) = ES 1870 (previous maj poc)
Key Charts: Today the German DAX index has rallied to test 9740, the major poc, having broken below that level last week.
Market Charts: All major market charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 79%, Nasdaq 69%, R2000 70%, UK 71% . Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.99. Wednesday’s ratio at 5.11 was a 57day high. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT closed above 128.43, the 3mn poc, in a strong price location. IEF closed above 110.38, the 4mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: printing below the 97.40 poc in a weak price location and has today printed its lowest level since October.
Gold: GLD – On Friday found Support at the previous poc at 115.50. Price below this level would suggest further weakness but closed the week in a strong price location above 118.05, the major poc and cash indicates a higher open today.
Oil: USO last week found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there.
EURUSD: found Support recently at 1.1085, the 1/2R off last year’s low and has rallied from there. On Thursday printed its highest level since October.
