Technical analysis – Market pre-open 25th April 2016
Friday generated a lower Value Area. The low of the session came at our First Level Support, the minor poc at 2075.50, see dashed line. Subsequent price action during the day lifted that minor poc to 2086.00 which is now First Level S/R at the start of this week. I’m watching price action today relative to that level as a guide re ST strength/weakness. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above 2041.00 it is in a strong price location.
First Level S/R = 2086.00 (min poc)
Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Market Charts: All major market charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 82%, Nasdaq 78%, R2000 82%, UK 65%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.05. On 04/13 the ratio reached 5.20 which was a three month high. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: monitoring these level: TLT was sharply lower last week. The 6mn poc migrated to 130.78 and that is now Resistance with Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: closed the week above 94.79 the 2yr poc but lower today and currently printing at that level.
Gold: GLD – closed the week just below 118.22, the major poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there. On Friday printed its highest level since December.
EURUSD: ended the week above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and as long as it holds that levelk it is in a a strong price location.
