Technical analysis – Market pre-open 28th April 2016
Wednesday generated an “outside Value Area” most of which was below 2086, the minor poc. As I wrote last week I would want to see Significant Buying (green) marked before initiating new long trades, and at current levels I would prefer that to be above 2086. Overnight ES has sold off to the low 2070’s. In the longer term as long as ES holds above 2041 it is in a strong price location.
First Level S/R = 2086.00 (min poc)
Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 83% (from 82%), Nasdaq 75% (from 76%), R2000 82% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 5.24. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.27 was the highest since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: monitoring these level: TLT moved sharply lower since mid month. The 6mn poc migrated to 130.78 and that is now Resistance with Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: Currently printing below 94.79, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD – closed on Wednesday above 118.22, the major poc. Time printed above this level would be a positive.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied from there. On Wednesday Oil printed its highest level since November.
EURUSD: Currently printing above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and needs to hold that level to remain in a a strong price location.
