Technical analysis – Market pre-open 29th April 2016
The first three days this week ES was no able to generate a Value Area above 2086.00, see Thursday’s highlighted comments. During Thursday’s session a fast move down started from the poc late in the day, see chart. This “may” be the start of a new distribution and therefore I am cautious here. Hopefully Reactive Buyers will step in early in today’s session but ES has rallied little from yesterday’s low.
First Level S/R = 2086.00 (min poc)
Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% (from 82%), Nasdaq 70% (from 76%), R2000 76% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 5.18. Tuesday’s ratio at 5.27 was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower since mid month. The 6mn poc migrated to 130.78 and that is now Resistance with Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: printing below 94.79, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location and has today printed its lowest lkevel since last August.
Gold: GLD – printing above 118.22, the major poc in a strong price location.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied strongly from there. Today Oil has printed its highest level since November.
EURUSD: l;ooks to have made a higher low above 1.1198 (3yr poc). Price above that level is strong location.
