Technical analysis – Market pre-open 3rd May 2016
See previous comments. Monday generated a higher Value Area but overnight ES has printed back down to test Monday’s low. In the longer timeframe as long as ES holds above 2041.00 it is in a stronf location but in the Short term I would want ES printing above 2086 before looking at new longs.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (min poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% (from 73%), Nasdaq 67% (from 63%), , R2000 75% (from 71%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.97. Last Tuesday’s ratio at 5.27 was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid month and rallied back a little last week. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and that could be Support or Resitstance this week with major Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: has today printed its lowest lkevel since Jan 2015.
Gold: GLD – on Monday printed its highest level since Jan 2015.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied strongly from there. On Friday Oil printed its highest level since November but is off that level today.
EURUSD: in mid-April chart made a higher low just above 1.1198 (3yr poc) – a strong pattern. Has today printed its highest level since August.
