Technical analysis – Market pre-open 5th May 2016
See previous comments. Wednesday generated a lower, narrower Value Area with the Support at 2041.00 being briefly tested. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness. Overnight ES has printed as high as 2060.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (min poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 52%, R2000 61%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.83 (from 5.11). On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid April but is now rallying back. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and is now Support with major Support at 126.70, the 1/2R off last year’s high.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its lowest level since Jan 2015 but is currently rallying from there.
Gold: GLD – on Monday printed its highest level since Jan 2015.
Oil: USO earlier in the month found Support at 9.00, the 6mn poc and rallied strongly from there. On Friday Oil printed its highest level since November but is off that level.
EURUSD: in mid-April chart made a higher low just above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and on Tuesday printed its highest level since August.
