Technical analysis – Market pre-open 10th May 2016
Note: this was posted five hours pre-open, See previous comments. Note the Support at 2041.00. So far at least, we have not seen a Value Area generated below that level. Time printed below 2041 would indicate further weakness. Overnight ES has rallied above 2065.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (min poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (2mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61% (from 64%), Nasdaq 50% (from 49%), R2000 58% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.61. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid April but is now rallying back. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and is now Support. There is minor Resistance at 131.82, the 1/2R off this year’s high.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its lowest level since Jan 2015 but has rallied from there. Resistance at 94.79, the 2yr poc.
Gold: GLD – sharply lower on Monday but as long as it holds above the major poc at 118.22 it is in a strong LT price location.
Oil: USO – the 6mn poc recently migrated to 10.78. On Monday USO closed below that level in a weaker price location.
EURUSD: in mid-April chart made a higher low just above 1.1198 (3yr poc) and last week printed its highest level since August. Support is at 1.1198, the 3yr poc and as long as EURUSD holds this level it is in a strong price location.
