Technical analysis – Market pre-open 11th May 2016
See previous comments. So far, ES has failed to print a Value Area below 2041 (now the 8 month poc Support) and on Tuesday Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. There is Resistance at 2086, the minor poc and price printing time above that level would be a further positive.
First Level Resistance = 2086.00 (1mn poc)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (8mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69% (from 61%), Nasdaq 54% (from 50%), R2000 63% (from 58%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 4.63. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT moved sharply lower mid April but has rallied back. The 7mn poc migrated to 128.47 and is now Support. There is minor Resistance at 131.82, the 1/2R off this year’s high and currently chart has stalled just below this level.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its lowest level since Jan 2015 but has rallied from there. Currently is still in a weak price location below 94.79, the 2yr poc Resistance.
Gold: GLD – sharply lower on Monday but as long as it holds above the major poc at 118.22 it is in a strong LT price location. Cash indicates a higher open today.
Oil: USO – the 6mn poc recently migrated to 10.78. On Tuesday USO closed back above that level in a strong price location.
EURUSD: Support is at 1.1198, the 3yr poc and as long as EURUSD holds this level it is in a strong price location.
