emini S&P 500 Technical analysis – Stock market pre-open 23rd May 2016
Most important is price relative to the poc at 2041. On Thursday a Value Area was generated below 2041 but Friday’s VA was above that level. Obviously we would rather see price moving higher after that test but ES may oscillate around that poc. Price spending time below that level would be a negative. Effective Buying marked above 2041 would be a big positive. Pre-open today ES has printed as high as 2056. Breadth numbers improved on Friday but remain unsupportive (below 50%) see below.
First Level Resistance = 2063.50 (minir 1/2R off April high)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (8mn poc)
KEY Charts. IWM: The 1/2R off last years high is at 111.38. Chart closed below that level on Friday in a weak price location. QQQ: Major poc is at 105.13. This has been Support recently. Price below that level would indicate weakness.
Market Charts: All four major Market Charts that wee follow are positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48%, Nasdaq 45%, R2000 48%, UK 49%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.18. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT. was sharply midweek and broke below 130.77, the 8mn poc which puts it in a weaker price location.
Dollar Index: Now printing back above 94.79, the 2yr poc, in a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD – With the dollar rallying Gold declined last week but as long as GLD holds above the major poc at 118.22 it is in a strong LT price location.
Oil: USO – last week printed its highest level since December.
EURUSD: pre-open today charting is again testing 1.1198, the 3yr poc Support.. Time below this level would indicate further weakness.
