Overnight the S&P 500 e-mini printed as low as 2041.25, found Support and auctioned higher and as of ninety minutes pre-open has printed as high as 2053. As I keep writing, 2041 is the important level and Bulls would want to see that level hold. Price above 2063.50, the minor 1/2R, would put ES in a stronger price location. Until that happens I remain cautious especially if IWM prints below 111.38, see below, and the Breadth numbers remain un-supportive (below 50%) see below.
First Level Resistance = 2063.50 (minor 1/2R off April high)
First Level Support = 2041.00 (8mn poc)
KEY Charts. IWM: The 1/2R off last years high is at 111.38. Chart closed below that level on Monday in a weak price location. QQQ: Major poc is at 105.13. This has been Support recently. Price below that level would indicate weakness.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 45% (from 48%), Nasdaq 46% (from 45%), R2000 48%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.65, a 46 day low. The extreme low for the ratio was on 02/19 when it fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT broke below 130.77, the 8mn poc, last week which put it in a weaker price location. Monday’s high was close to this Resistance.
Dollar Index: Now printing back above 94.79, the 2yr poc, in a stronger price location. Has today printed its highest level since late March.
Gold: GLD – As long as GLD holds above the major poc at 118.22 it is in a strong LT price location. Closed at 119.37 on Monday – cash indicates a lower open today.
Oil: USO – last week printed its highest level since December.
EURUSD: has today broken below 1.1198, the 3yr poc Support.. Time below this level would indicate further weakness.
Click image to enlarge.
