Key Chart Support levels have held for ES, SPY and QQQ
with a Key Chart Resistance level a little higher for IWM. For the first three weeks in May ES ranged but held the 2041 poc apart from the test last Friday. Following that rejected test, this week the intraday low came in at 2041.25 (early on Monday) and ES auctioned higher from there to a level above the high of the previous three weeks. The poc of the current distribution has not migrated from 2041 and as long as ES holds above that level the target remains 2120. As reported yesterday the major poc migrated to 2054.50 and that should be strong Support now.
First Level Support = 2063.50 (minor 1/2R off April high)
Second Level Support = 2054.50 (maj poc)
Third Level Support = 2041.00 (9mn poc)
KEY Charts. IWM: has broken above 111.38. this week, 1/2R off last years high. That’s a stronger price location but the next (and most important Resistance) is at 115.35, the major poc. QQQ: Major poc is at 105.13. This has been clear Support recently and chart has rallied to print a four week high on Wednesday.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 58%), Nasdaq 57% (from 54%), R2000 61% (from 60%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.89. Monday’s ratio at 3.65 was a 46 day low. The extreme low for the ratio was on 02/19 when it fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012. This is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT broke below 130.77, the 8mn poc, last week which puts the chart in a weaker price location.
Dollar Index: Now printing back above 94.79, the 2yr poc, in a stronger price location.
Gold: GLD – has this week broken below 118.22, the major poc which puts the chart in a weak price location.
Oil: futures have today printed the highest level since October.
EURUSD: has this week broken below 1.1198, the 3yr poc Support. Time below this level indicates further weakness.
Click graphic to enlarge
