posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Thursday 19th November
On Wednesday ES further consolidated the poc at 1106 in a low volume, narrow Value Area. Both Tuesday and Wednesday were spent within Monday’s range. This pattern has a habit of resolving in a fast move usually in the direction of the breakout. Question is which way?
I’d say the evidence was shifting in the short term at least to the Bears. Yesterday there was a 16% increase in the assets of the Rydex Bull Funds I monitor and a 2.4% decrease in the Bear Fund Assets. The Rydex timers look to have spent this week shifting to a more bullish stance and that’s not usually good news for the market. Each day this week Bull Fund assets were up and Bear Fund assets were down – lifting my version of the Assets Ratio up to 2.4 from 1.6 last Friday.
I’m not initiating new longs until green has been marked either above 1106 or following some solid support lower e.g. the 1088.5 poc.
note that TLT is consolidating above the 94.70 poc which may mean some strength for bonds and the dollar is having a good day so far.
