emini analysis 9th August 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Monday’s session generated an overlapping Value Area and a new high for ES. The 2month poc is at 2160.50 and ES needs to hold this level to maintain a strong price location in the ST. Significant Buying (green) marked above that poc would be a positive. In the longer term as long as chart holds the Major poc Support at 2087 it is in a strong price location. Bulls are emerging in the Rydex ratio, see below.
ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major stock index ETFs is above zero but still heading down. A positive confirmation would be to see this indicator turn up.
First Level Support = 2160.50 (2mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2087.00 (major poc)
Market Charts: All major Market Charts remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 71% (from 70%), Nasdaq 70% (unch), R2000 70% (from 71%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked up to 7.74 (from 6.19). That’s quite a jump and a seven month high for the ratio. Bear fund assets that I follow fell 16% and are close to a twelve month low. Bull fund assets reached their highest level for the year to date. The Rydex traders are becoming much more optimistic and this is often a warning sign.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: On Monday TLT closed in a ST weak price location below 140.30, the min 1/2R off the July high. More important Support is at 130.77 (3year poc).
Dollar Index: last week tested the important Support at 95.25 (2yr poc) and has so far held. Next test is the 1/2R Resistance off the November high at 96.21 and today chart is probing above that level.
Gold: On Monday GLD closed below 128.13, the minor 1/2R off the July high. In the LT as long as the chart holds above 118.22 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – is printing below 10.78, the 9mn poc but closed above 10.06, the 1/2R off February’s low. Crude Futures (Sep) has held the 1/2R off the February low and has bounced – this is a good chart to follow for a while and has so far not broken down.
EURUSD: Currently printing below 1.1313, the 4yr poc and is today printing very close to 1.11, the 1/2R off last year’s low.
click graphic to enlarge
