Stock market 13th September 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: See Monday’s comments on chart. Friday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Monday but ES recovered and auctioned higher, retracing some of Friday’s decline. Note that we are now following the December contract and the 1/2R off the August high for this contract is 2142.25 Price relative to this level may provide a clue re ST strength/weakness. One hour pre-open ES is printing just below this level.
For reference here are the equivalent 1/2R for SPY and IWM:
SPY = 215.95
IWM = 123.00
It would be a big positive to see these charts printing above those 1/2R levels post-open today.
First Level S/R today = 2142.25 (1/2R off August high, Dec contract)
Resistance = 2180.50 (4mn poc)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48% (from 42%), Nasdaq 58% (from 52%), R2000 57% (from 50%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 7.47. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high. With yesterday’s recovery after Friday’s fall, Rydex Bull fund assets reached a 10 day high – maybe the Rydex traders were buying the dip and that’s a little worrying.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – since the beginning of August four probes into 140.34 Resistance (the 1/2R off the July high) had failed and on Friday TLT sold off sharply to a new low since the July high. There has been little recovery in the the T-bond futures today.
Dollar Index: last week tested the Support at 94.76 (2yr poc) and has so far held. Price below that level would immediately put UDX in a weak position.
Gold: GLD is printing below 127.85 (1/2R off July high). This is weak price location in the ST. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc) – there is a possibility that poc could migrate higher – I am watching for that.
Oil: USO – rallied back last week but closed on Monday below 10.78, the 18mn poc. There is Support at 10.07, the 1/2R off this year’s low and this held a test recently. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness.
EURUSD: recently found Support at 1.1139, the 4yr poc and currently the chart is printing above that level. There is also Support lower at 1.1083, 1/2R of last year’s low.
