Stock market report 20th September – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: For December ES contract, the 1/2R off the August high comes in at 2142.25. Early in Monday’s session ES tried another probe above that level which was once again rejecetd. Price printing time above this level would be a positive. A 10day poc has emerged at 2135.00 and this may be a useful level to monitor today re ST strength/weakness. Price momentum (PriceOsc) on the Pulse Chart is negative and heading down and Breadth is also red so I’m cautious here but major Support at ES 2087 and SPY 209.90 has not been tested and as long as these levels hold the charts are in a LT strong price location.
First Level Resistance = 2142.25 (1/2R off August high, Dec contract)
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Stock index ETFs: minor 1/2R levels to watch for SPY and IWM – (note that these will change if the charts make new lows for this move). SPY = 215.95 IWM = 122.66
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% (from 34%), Nasdaq 54% (from 52%), R2000 50% (from 46%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 6.30. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – following the weak pattern in August (see previous analysis) the chart has fallen sharply reaching a twelve week low last week.
Dollar Index: recently tested the Support at 94.76 (2yr poc) and has so far held. The proven Resistance is at 96.21, 1/2R off Dec high. Price above that level would put the chart in a stronger position.
Gold: GLD is printing below 127.85 (1/2R off July high). This is weak price location in the ST. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc) – there is a possibility that poc could migrate higher – I am watching for that.
Oil: USO – is printing below 10.78, the 18mn poc in a weak price location and closed on Monday below 10.07, the 1/2R off this year’s low. Price printing time below this level would indicate further weakness.
EURUSD: recently found Support at 1.1139, the 4yr poc and currently the chart is printing very close to that level following a decline on Friday. There is also Support lower at 1.1083, 1/2R of last year’s low.
click to enlarge graphic
