Stock market today 4th October 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES analysis: Last week ES tested and held 2135 which at the time was First Level Support. That minor poc has now moved to 2141.5 which is close to 2142.50, the 1/2R off August high. Monday’s Value Area was lower and narrower but printed entirely above 2141.50.
Current price distribution: If ES prints higher I would not want to see too much time spent at 2159. A poc emerging at that level would probably not be constructive.
First Level Support = 2141.50 = 1 month poc
Major poc Support = 2087.00
Key Charts/Levels: IWM 122.65 = 5mn poc Support; QQQ 116.97 = 4mn poc Support. Momentum (PriceOsc) for IWM and QQQ is positive. Large-cap SPY and DIA need to confirm.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48% (from 51%), Nasdaq 57% (from 58%), R2000 54% (57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 7.34. The ratio reached 7.9 on 08/26, a seven month high.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: TLT – On Wednesday last week there was a rejected probe of the 4mn poc Resistance at 139.00. Chart is lower from there.
Dollar Index: The 1/2R off Dec high Resistance is at 96.21. Chart is currently probing that Resistance. Price above that level would put the chart in a stronger position. Support lower at 94.76 (2yr poc).
Gold: GLD rallied to test 127.85, the 1/2R Resistance off the July high. This was rejected and chart has declined from there. Price above that level would put the chart in a stronger position. The major poc Support is at 118.22 (maj poc).
Oil: USO – is now printing above 10.78, the 18mn poc in a strong price location.
EURUSD: the 4yr poc is at 1.1165 and the chart is currently printing at that level.
click to enlarge graphic
