Pre-open Monday 30th November
After the news related sell-off on Friday ES held above support to keep the longframe uptrend intact (see Friday comments bottom left).
1088.50 has emerged as the poc for the last 60 days or more. From the overnight low (early Friday) of 1067 ES rallied back as high as 1098.25 before settling back to print around 1088.50 pre-open today.
Sentiment, overhead resistance and non-confirmations are all negatives (detailed below) which may be enough reasons for ES to struggle further here but as I said back on the 12th November; “Longframe: If ES holds/consolidates above 1063/64 it’s in a strong position and indicates higher”. ES has managed to hold above that level since that time. So 1063/64 is the critical support level in the longframe – in the short term whether ES can hold/consolidate above 1088.50 may well decide the direction this week.
Over the last two weeks I’ve marked Buyers Responding but no Aggressive acitivity from the Significant players. Aggressive Buying (green at top) above 1088.50 would suggest a test of the November high and Aggressive Selling (red at bottom) below 1088.50 would indicate a test of the 1063/64 support.
The public got very bullish last week. The Rydex timers and the option buyers were very skewed to the long side in the early part of the week.
The SPY and NYA charts recently reached significant overhead resistance levels (1/2 Bear market).
There have been a number of non-confirmations recently. e.g. This month DIA and SPY tested their October highs; the Financials (XLF) and Smallcap (IWM) sectors did not.
