Stock market today 17th November 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit.
Please read previous comments. Following Tuesday’s Agressive Buying, Wednesday generated a very narrow, “inside” Value Area but like Tuesday’s it was printed entirely above 2159.50. ES has to hold this level to maintain a strong price location. Momentum and breadth have improved on the Pulse chart. I’m a little concerned about the Rydex Bear Fund data, see below.
First Level Support = 2159.50 (now 6month poc)
Second Level Support = 2106.50 (1/2R off August high)
Major poc = 2087.00
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 60%), Nasdaq 65% (from 64%), R2000 73% (from 72%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 6.24 (from 7.59). On 08/26 the ratio reached 7.90, the highest ratio for the last ten months. This week Rydex Bear Fund assets that I follow reached their lowest level in more than twelve months. From a contrarian perspective this is a little concerning.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – early last week TLT closed below 130.77, the 3year poc and declined heavily for the rest of the week. On Monday this week the chart reached its lowest level since January, closing at 121.31. The major poc Support is at 117.15.
Dollar Index: is testing the December ’15 high.
Gold: on Friday broke below 119.84, major poc Support and fell sharply. The next Support is at 115.69, 1/2R off last year’s low. This has been reached – Monday’s low was 115.49.
Oil: USO – USO broke below 10.78, the 18mn poc, at the end of October and fell sharply from there. On Tuesday Chart closed back above 10.06, the 1/2R off the Feb low and is now in a stronger price location above that level. This is a Key Chart.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On Wednesday printed its lowest level since December.
click to view graphic
