Stock market today 15th December 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous comments. ES found Support early last week at 2200, the 5week poc, see chart, and held that strong price location with all Value Areas since then printed above that level with Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) marked three times. On Wednesday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). Wednesdayt’s Value Area was overlapping/lower than Tuesday’s and printed entirely above the minor poc (2200) so this is not Effective Selling and does not indicate a problem for the long term trend. Even so with red being marked new longs are eliminated for me, at least until Significat Buying (green) is marked again. With the market being so overbought technically and the Rydex Ratio at an eleven month high, see below, some minor weakness here wouldn’t be a surprise. Also, see Pulse chart, there is a clear negative divergenceon the minor timeframe between price and momentum (which has just ticked lower).
First Level Support = 2200 (minor poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio has climbed to 9.01 which is an eleven month high. Mainly due to Bear fund assets which are at a seventeen month low.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 73% (from 79%), Nasdaq 69% (from 73%), R2000 79% (from 83%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – on Wednesday TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 and closed just below major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: is today printing at its highest level since April 2003.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. On Wednesday printed its lowest level since early February.
Oil: USO – since start of December chart has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc in a strong price location. On Monday printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. Has today printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
