emini analysis 23rd December 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Dayframe: All the price action over the last six days has taken place within last Wednesday’s range, see Monday’s comments. On Thursday there was a rejected test of 2259 (minor poc) at the open, see yesterday’s comments. The Value Area was generated entirely below that level. In the ST if that minor poc does not move, price below 2259 is weak location.
Also, see Pulse chart – there is a clear negative divergence on the minor timeframe between price and momentum. Positives would be Momentum ticking up and Significant Buying (green) marked above ES 2259.00.
Minor Support/Resistance = 2259 (minor poc)
First Level Support = 2200 (2 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 11.60 which is the highest reading since early June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 73% (from 75%), Nasdaq 66% (from 70%), R2000 77% (from 80%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – last week TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 but has so far held the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: on Tuesday printed its highest level since April 2003.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. On Thursday printed its lowest level since January.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc, in a strong price location. On 12/12 chart printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
