emini analysis 3rd January 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES closed on Friday near the low of the week and below Wednesday’s low. This was a week where Sellers were Active but I have classified the Selling as Ineffective because the weekly Value Area was overlapping the previous week’s VA, see eBook. Since pre-open Thursday 15th new longs have been eliminated for me. Significant Buying marked above 2259 would be a positive and I will remain cautious about the long side unless that happens.
Momentum (PriceOsc) on the SPY chart, although positive (trend up) is still falling. This indicator has a strong tendency to return to the zero level once it has turned down from an elevated level, see Pulse Chart. The Rydex Ratio has also been a concern recently, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2259.00 (3 month poc)
First Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.73, the highest ratio since June 2015.
Market Charts: Nyse, R2K and UK remained positive, Nasdaq turned neutral.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70%, Nasdaq 65%, R2000 76%, UK 74% Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – On 12/14 TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 but has so far held the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: On 12/20 printed its highest level since April 2003. Is today printing close to that level.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. On 12/15 chart printed its lowest level since last January.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc, in a strong price location. On 12/12 chart printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On 12/20 printed its lowest level since early 2003.
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