emini analysis 5th January 2016 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The 3month poc at 2259 was probed and rejected on Tuesday but Wednesday’s Value Area was printed entirely above that level. This level could be Support or Resistance during today’s session and pre-open today it has been tested, but not broken. Bulls would want to see this poc hold.
Momentum (PriceOsc) on the SPY chart, although positive (trend up) is still falling. This indicator has a strong tendency to return to the zero level once it has turned down from an elevated level, see Pulse Chart. See also Sentiment, below.
Support/Resistance today? = 2259.00 (3 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.98, an eleven day low. Down from Tuesday’s 11.83 which was the highest ratio since June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% (from 76%), Nasdaq 74% (from 68%) (from 65%), R2000 85% (from 79%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – On 12/14 TLT printed its lowest level since July 2015 but has so far held the major poc Support at 117.15 and on Wednesday printed an eighteen day high. Time below that level would be worrying.
Dollar Index: On Tuesday printed its highest level since April 2003. Off that high and has today printed a sixteen day low.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. On 12/15 chart printed its lowest level since last January. Up from that low and cash indicates a higher open today.
Oil: USO – since the start of December USO has been printing above 10.78, the maj poc, in a strong price location. On Tuesday chart printed its highest level since late June.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since early 2003.
click graphic to enlarge
