emini analysis 31st January 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Monday’s session opened sharply lower. Support was found at 2265.00, the 4 month poc and our First Level Support. Monday’s Value Area was printed above the poc – price printing time below that level would put ES in a weak price location. Breadth numbers deteriorated on Monday, see below. Momentum (PriceOsc) on the SPY chart although still positive, turned down on Monday, see Pulse chart.
First Level Support = 2265.00 (4 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply higher at 10.76 (from 7.63). On 01/03 the ratio reached 11.83, the highest ratio since June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58% (from 67%), Nasdaq 50% (from 58%), R2000 47% (from 57%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – two weeks ago the major poc migrated higher to 121.60. TLT has closed below that level for nine consecutive days days which is weak price location. TLT must print back above that poc to regain a strong position.
Dollar Index: On 01/03 the index printed its highest level since April 2003. Off from there and printed a 35 day low on Thursday.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. This Resistance was probed last week but not exceeded. Cash gold also stalled at 1210.38, its equivalent 1/2R Resistance. Price above these levels would put charts in a much stroinger position.
Oil: USO – at the end of last week the major poc migrated higher from 10.78 to 11.44. Price relative to 11.44 is now important to monitor. USO closed below that level on Monday.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On 01/03 printed its lowest level since early 2003. Has rallied 3% from there.
click graphic to enlarge
