emini analysis 1st February 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The 4 month poc at 2265.00 has so far held this week’s sell-off. ES has rallied overnight to the very minor 1/2R off last week’s high at 2281.00 but has not yet printed time above this minor Resistance. Price printing time below 2265.00 would put ES in a weak price location. Momentum (PriceOsc) on the SPY chart although still positive, turned down on Monday, see Pulse chart. Also watching the Rydex ratio closely, see below.
First Level Support = 2265.00 (4 month poc)
Second Level Support = 2159.50 (6month poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 11.07 (from 10.76). On 01/03 the ratio reached 11.83, the highest ratio since June 2015.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 58%), Nasdaq 53% (from 50%), R2000 49% (from 47%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts
Bonds: TLT – two weeks ago the major poc migrated higher to 121.60. TLT has closed below that level for nine consecutive days days which is weak price location. TLT must print back above that poc to regain a strong position.
Dollar Index: On 01/03 the index printed its highest level since April 2003. Off from there. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since early December.
Gold: 11/23 GLD broke below 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low which put the chart in a weak price location. This Resistance was probed last week but not exceeded. Cash gold also stalled at 1210.38, its equivalent 1/2R Resistance. Price above these levels would put charts in a much stroinger position.
Oil: USO – at the end of last week the major poc migrated higher from 10.78 to 11.44. Price relative to 11.44 is now important to monitor. USO closed below that level on Tuesday.
EURUSD: in early October chart broke below 1.1165, the 4yr poc, and has been in a weak price location since then. On 01/03 printed its lowest level since early 2003. Has rallied more than 3% from there and on Tuesday printed its highest level since early December.
click graphic to enlarge
