emini analysis 6th March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous comments. ES was sharply higher on Wednesday but weakened to the end of the week. Even so, Value Areas were generated above 2360, the minor poc and as long as ES holds this level it is in a string price location. First sign of weakness in the longer timeframe would be Effective Selling marked below that poc.
First Level Support = 2360.00 (23 day poc)
Key Chart IWM has been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks and printed a new high last week. Sentiment moved to extremes last week, see below.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 12.30 down from 14.02 recorded on Wednesday. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. Another extreme last week came in the Investor’s Intelligence surveywith Bulls% reaching 63.1%, the highest since 1987.
Market Charts: Nyse and Nasdaq turned neutral, R2000 remained neutral, UK remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61%, Nasdaq 54%, R2000 51%, UK 68%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart has been consolidating above that Support which must hold if TLT is to maintain a strong price location. However chart was sharply lower on Wednesday and closed on Friday only just above that Support. KEY chart.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart broke back above that level last week.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and has since held above that level. Last week the chart briefly probed above the Resistance at 119.84, the major poc, but has so far been rejected from that level.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 11.44 and is important to monitor. USO closed below that level on Friday.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart currently prints below that level and printed a 30day low on Friday.
EURUSD: chart is printing very close to 1.0597, the 7mn poc. Price relative to this level is important to monitor.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing just above that level.
click to enlarge graphic
