emini analysis 7th January 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See previous comments. ES (and SPY) closed the day session gap on Monday. Three consecutively lower Value Areas will often mark the end of a correction in a strong uptrend and with the Support at 2360 as yet untested, that’s a possibility. There is a minor (8 day) poc at 2375 and I would want to see Significant Buying marked above that level before considering new longs simply because the Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) last Thursday is the most recent imbalance and should usually not be faded. Effective Selling marked below 2360 would indicate something more serious in the longer timeframe. This is also a possibility considering the recent Sentiment excesses, see below.
First Level Support = 2360.00 (24 day poc)
Key Chart IWM has been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks. Must hold this level to maintain a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 11.65. Down from 14.02 recorded last Wednesday. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. Another extreme last week came in the Investor’s Intelligence surveywith Bulls% reaching 63.1%, the highest since 1987.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% (from 61%), Nasdaq 51% (from 54%), R2000 46% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart has been consolidating above that Support but closed below it on Monday. KEY chart.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart broke back above that level last week and is printing above it today.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and has since held above that level. Last week the chart briefly probed above the Resistance at 119.84, the major poc, but has so far been rejected from that level.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 11.44 and is important to monitor. USO closed below that level on Monday.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart has been printing below that level for seven days and has today printed a 35day low.
EURUSD: chart is printing just below 1.0597, the 7mn poc. Price relative to this level is important to monitor.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing above that level.
click to enlarge graphic
