emini analysis 9th March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Wednesday’s session generated an overlapping Value Area but the session close was weak with ES finishing close to the 2360 poc Support. Overnight that poc was tested and again ninety minutes pre-open as I write. Wednesday’s tick reading was a high negative number with lots of readings during the session below -800 which indicates large Sellers. In the longer timeframe all the Selling over the last five days can be considered Reactive since it took place above the 2360 poc. Effective Selling marked below 2360 would likely indicate something more serious in the longer timeframe. This is a possibility considering the recent Sentiment excesses, see below.
Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major ETFs, although still positive is down. IWM had been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks but yesterday closed below that Support in a weak price location. Daily Breadth has turned negative, see Pulse chart.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 11.73. Down from 14.02 recorded last week. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. Another extreme last week came in the Investor’s Intelligence survey with Bulls% reaching 63.1%, the highest since 1987.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% (from 52%), Nasdaq 45% (unch), R2000 38% (from 40%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – the major poc is at 119.00. Since early January the chart was consolidating above that Support but this week has broken below that level and is in a weak price location. KEY chart.
Dollar Index: found Resistance twice in February at 101.52, the 1/2R off the Jan high. Chart broke back above that level last week and is printing above it this week.
Gold: in early February GLD broke back above 115.69, the 1/2R off last year’s low, and held above that level until yesterday when it closed below it. Gold bulls would want to see GLD recover that level.
Oil: USO – spent four days printing below 11.44, the major poc and on Wednesday fell sharply to its lowest level since November. Futures indicate another sharp fall on open for USO today.
GBPUSD: the 15mn poc is at 1.2478. Chart has been printing below that level for eight days and has today printed a 37day low.
EURUSD: chart is printing below 1.0597, the 7mn poc in a weaker price location.
USDJPY: The 1/2R off the 2015 high comes in at 112.47. Chart is currently printing above that level.
click graphic to enlarge
