emini analysis 4th April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See yesterday’s comments. ES broke lower on Monday and briefly tested our Second Level Minor Support at 2340.50. There followed a rally back to 2357.50, the minor 1/2R off this month’s high, where ES found Resistance which has not yet been overcome. Price below 2340.50 would be a weaker location. Breadth deteriorated yesterday, see numbers below.
Resistance = 2367.00 (2month poc)
Minor Resistance = 2357.50 (minor 1/2R off this month’s high) dashed line.
Minor Support = 2340.5 (16day poc)
Key Chart: IWM – Chart closed above 135.00, the 2mn poc. Price below this level would be weaker location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 9.26. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 53%), Nasdaq 46% (from 51%), R2000 42% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – The 8mn poc migrated to 121.63 last week and TLT closed just slightly above this level on Monday. This is the controlling price of the current distribution. Price printing time above that point would be a stronger price location. Chart is printing above 119.00, the major poc, which is the important Support to monitor. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied last week but is still printing below 101.00, the major poc, in a weak price location. Printing a fourteen day high today.
Gold: chart has rallied back to 119.84, the maj poc, and found Resistance there in February and again in March. Price printing time above this level would be strong location.
Oil: USO – rallied last week but is printing below 11.44, the major poc in a LT weak price location. Key chart. The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached last week and held. Time printed below that level would further weaken the price location and likely be a problem for equities as well.
GBPUSD: last week the chart found Support at 1.2375, the 1/2R off Dec high. Currently printing below 1.2478, the maj poc. Price printing time above this level would be stronger location.
EURUSD: lower recently but still holding above 1.0597, the 7mn poc, in a strong price location.
USDJPY: printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location.
click graphic to enlarge
