emini analysis 21st April 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. During Wednesday’s session the three month poc migrated lower to 2341. On Thursday there was an early test of this level and ES rallied. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked and interestingly enough time was spent at 2353 to lift the 3mn poc back to that level. If ES can print some time above 2353 it will be back in a strong price location. Also note the 3mn VAL is now re-established at 2335 (dashed line)and as I wrote Wednesday, should price be accepted around that level (rather than rejected) it would likely be a negative indication. Breadth numbers improved yesterday, see below.
I would say that today’s session is an important test for the Bulls. Can they auction ES above yesterday’s green-at-top high? Can they keep price above the poc at ES 2353? Can the breadth numbers hold above 50%? Will we see a strong end to the week for SPY and a “Buyers Active” Weekly Structure? – last one was ten weeks ago.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.50 (from 10.16). On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54% (from 46%), Nasdaq 51% (from 43%), R2000 55% (from 45%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – early last week TLT closed above 121.63, the 8mn poc and closed on Tuesday at its highest level since early November. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, early last week. That probe into Resistance appeares to have been rejected.
Gold: early last week GLD closed above 119.84, the maj poc, and has since held that level (Support).
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there to print above 10.84, the 1/2R Resistance off last year’s high, but has broken back below that level. In the LT if chart is printing below the major poc at 11.44, the chart is in a weak price location. Key chart.
GBPUSD: printed above 1.2478, the maj poc, for four days and on Tuesday this week surged higher.
EURUSD: last week tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location if it holds above that level.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March.
click to enlarge graphic
