emini analysis 3rd May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
ES spent Tuesday’s session oscillating around 2385, the one month poc. Significant Buying (green) marked above this level would be a big positive. Price relative to this level could be monitored at as a guide to ST strength/weakness.
Dayframe: The Value Area Low (VAL) of this minor one month distribution is at 2380 (dashed line). If ES is still has an upward bias I would expect a test down into this level to be rejected. Price acceptance of this level would be a minor negative.
Breadth numbers improved last week and are now Supportive. Momentum (PriceOsc) on the SPY chart is positive. In the LT as long as ES holds above 2353 it is in a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 12.87. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (unch), Nasdaq 59% (unch), R2000 61% (from 62%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – on Monday TLT closed below 121.63, the 8mn poc, but recovered on Tuesday to close almost at that level. Price printing time below 121.63 would be an indication of weakness. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: in April GLD broke above 119.84, the maj poc, and held that level until Monday when it closed just below that price. The 1/2R off last year’s high comes in just below that level at 119.07. Bulls would to see this area of price providing Support.
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there but has re-tested and now broken below that level. Bulls would want to see USO back above that level. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. Printed a six month high on Friday.
EURUSD: earlier in the month chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location above that level and last week rallied to its highest level since November.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March.
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