emini analysis 4th May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Dayframe: see yesterday’s highlighted comments. Early in Wednesday’s session there was a test below 2380 (dashed line) – the VAL of the one month distribution. This was rejected and ES rallied. The Value Area was printed above this level. This suggests ES still has an upward bias in the ST. Significant Buying (green) marked above 2385 (one month poc|) would be a big positive. Price relative to this level can be monitored at as a guide to ST strength/weakness.
In the LT as long as ES holds above 2353 (3month poc) it is in a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply lower at 10.19 (from 12.87) due to a 14% fall in bullish fund assets. This is a contrarian indicator so this is not a bearish indication in the ST. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 55%), Nasdaq 55% (from 59%), R2000 54% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – on Monday TLT closed below 121.63, the 8mn poc, but recovered. Price printing time below 121.63 would be an indication of weakness. Futures indicate a lower open for TLT today. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: has this week broken below119.84, the maj poc, and also below 119.07, the 1/2R off last year’s high. Weak price location. Cash suggests a lower open for GLD today.
Oil: USO – The Support at 10.06 (1/2R off 2016 low) was reached mid-March and held. USO rallied from there but has re-tested and now broken below that level. Bulls would want to see USO back above that level. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. Printed a six month high on Friday.
EURUSD: earlier in the month chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location above that level and last week rallied to its highest level since November.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March. Chart has rallied and is now approaching that Resistance.
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