emini analysis 12th May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Thursday’s session saw an early rejected test of 2380, the one month VAL (dashed line) – see previous highlighted comments. The current (minor) price distribution with poc at 2385, looks compete or near to completion. Therefore in the ST timeframe it is important to monitor price relative to that poc. This week all VAs have been generated above 2385. Pre-open ES tested that level. In the LT as long as ES holds above 2353 (3month poc) it is in a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 10.75. The 50 day low is at 8.98. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 52% (from 55%), Nasdaq 53% (from 55%), R2000 50% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – printing below 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a weaker price location. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location.
Gold: last week GLD broke below119.84, the maj poc, and also below 119.07, the 1/2R off last year’s high. Weak price location. Printed a 38day low on Tuesday.
Oil: USO – The 1/2R off 2016 low at 10.06 was broken last week. This is now Resistance. Bulls would want to see USO back above that level. If not Oil could become a problem for equities. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location.
EURUSD: last month the chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location above that level.
USDJPY: has this week tested the Resistance at 113.61, the 4mn poc, but is currently printing back below that level.
click graphic to enlarge
