emini analysis 10th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Aggressive Selling was marked on Thursday – however Friday’s session exceeded Thursday’s high, see chart, which negates any ST negative implications of that red-at-bottom low. This is unusual, 80% of the time a red-at-bottom low is tested before the high of that profile is exceeded. The exact high of the week was the Resistance at 2436.50, the 6wk poc, see chart. Price printing time above this Resistance would be a positive. The 6wk Value Area Low (VAL) is still at 2418 (dashed line).
Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.88. Previous the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Market Charts: Nyse stayed negative; Nasdaq & R2000 stayed Neutral; UK stayed negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54%, Nasdaq 56%, R2000 57%, UK 38%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. 06/30 the index printed its lowest level since October and tested the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc. Up off that level. Price printing time below 95.57 would be a negative.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
click to enlarge graphic
