emini analysis 20th July 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous comments. ES reached a new all-time-high on Wednesday and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked again. As long as ES holds above 2436.50, the 6wk poc, it is in a strong LT price location. First sign of minor dayframe weakness would be a Value Area printed below 2456.50, the minor (9day) poc.
First Level Support = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
Second Level Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 8.30, a 38day low. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market but currently the ratio is close to a 5 month low which is at 7.75. The market has rallied strongly for six days to a new high but the ratio has fallen, in the ST that is usually bullish.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70% (from 63%), Nasdaq 66% (from 61%), R2000 67% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there. Support is at 121.63, the 8mn poc.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. last week broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc and is lower this week. On Tuesday the index printed its lowest level since September.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST 1.2936, the 5month poc, is Support and this has been tested today.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support. On Tuesday the chart printed its highest level since May last year.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc is at 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level but heading down towards that Support.
click graphic to enlarge
