emini analysis 14th August 2017 – pre-open
Wednesday 08/09 generated a Value Area entirely below the minor poc at 2470.00. This was our first minor sign of weakness – see previous highlighted comments. Thursday was a strong down day which was halted at the First Level Support at 2436.50 – see previous highlighted comments, this level is now the 7mn poc. A Value Area generated below this level would be an indication of weakness in the longer timeframe. Althougfh Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) was marked on Friday this can be considered Reactive Selling in the longer timeframe because it took place above the 7mn poc.
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment:My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher at the end of the week to 14.63. Bull fund assets that I follow reached the highest level for the year to date. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Market Charts: All major Market Charts are negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 40%, Nasdaq 33%, R2000 31%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak price location.
Gold: GLD is now printing back above 119.84, the maj poc, in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – the 4mn poc Resistance has been probed twice in the last ten days but has not yet been exceeded.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc, is Support – this has been tested twice in the last five weeks but has held.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there to its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc is at 111.30. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location.
click graphic to enlarge
