emini analysis 16th August 2017 – pre-open
See previous highlighted comments. Thursday’s sell-off was halted at the First Level Support at 2436.50. A Value Area generated below this level would be an indication of weakness in the longer timeframe. In the shorter timeframe, price printing time above 2474, the 2mn poc Resistance, would be a positive. Also the Pulse Chart needs to improve – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red.
First Level Resistance = 2473.00 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment:My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 12.20 (from 14.46). On Friday Bull fund assets that I follow reached the highest level for the year to date. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 48%), Nasdaq 38% (from 41%), R2000 36% (from 38%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is now printing back above 119.84, the maj poc. As long as GLD prints above this level it is in a strong LT price location.
Oil: USO – the 4mn poc Resistance has been probed twice recently but has not exceeded and is down from that level.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc Support was broken on Monday which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc is at 111.30. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location.
click graphic to enlarge
