emini analysis 21st August 2017 – pre-open
See previous highlighted comments. Friday’s Value Area was printed below 2436.50 (7mn poc). Price being accepted below that level is an indication of weakness. The Pulse Chart remains weak – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
There is previous poc Support at 2353.00 but this is not a major level.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 12.22. The ratio reached 14.63 the previous week and 15.21 on 06/30, the highest in the database.
Market Charts: All major market charts are negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36%, Nasdaq 32%, R2000 28%. UK 48%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is printing back above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. On Friday cash Gold reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc has migrated lower from 11.44 to 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc Support was broken last week which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location. 108.87 is the 1/2R off 2016 low and has provided Support three times this year. Price breaking this proven Support would be an indication of further weakness.
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