emini analysis 24th August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Value Areas on Friday and Monday were printed entirely below 2436.50 (7mn poc) – an indication of weakness but VAs on Tuesday and Wednesday were printed entirely above that level, and as I wrote on Tuesday that “would be the first minor positive”, see highlighted comments. Overnight the 2436.50 Support was very briefly tested and ES has since rallied back to print above 2445.
Note though, that the Pulse Chart remains weak – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red. And see Sentiment, below.
First Level Resistance = 2464.50 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 12.44. On Tuesday the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 35%), Nasdaq 34% (from 35%), R2000 30% (from 31%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is printing back above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. On Friday cash Gold reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc has migrated lower from 11.44 to 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc Support was broken last week which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location. 108.87 is the 1/2R off 2016 low and has provided Support three times this year. Price breaking this proven Support would be an indication of further weakness. Currently price is very close to this level.
click to enlarge graphic
