emini analysis 29th August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The last five Value Areas have been printed entirely above 2436.50, the 7mn poc, but ES fell overnight (as low as 2421) following news of the N. Korea missile launch. Price below the 7mn poc is weaker price location – Bulls would want to see ES printing back above that level. The Pulse Chart remains weak – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and the Breadth indicator is red.
First Level Resistance = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: Note that Rydex data for 28th needs to be checked, i.m.o. it looks as though some data may be incorrect. Rather than publish Monday’s ratio today, I will wait until I can check it tomorrow. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week on Friday at 12.37. Last Tuesday the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Market Charts: All major Market Charts remained negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 44%), Nasdaq 39% (from 38%), R2000 35% (from 34%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location. Today, T-bond futures printed at the highest level since November inicating a sharply higher open for TLT.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – today the index has printed its lowest level since January 2015.
Gold: for fourteen days GLD has been printing above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. Today cash Gold has reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, and in the ST as long as charts holds above 1.2884, the 5mon poc, (which it currently is) it is in a strong price location.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there and has today reached its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc. Chart prints below that level in a weak price location and today has broken below the 108.87 Support (1/2R off 2016 low).
click to enlarge graphic
