emini analysis 30th August 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read yesterday’s highlighted comments. ES opened below the 7mn poc at 2436.50 and immediately rallied back above it. The Value Area was once again generated entirely above that level. As long as ES holds above the poc it is in a strong price location but the Pulse Chart needs to improve, currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and the Breadth indicator is red.
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: Note – I have checked the Rydex data for 28th which was in doubt and it appears to be accurate. The ratio fell to 8.54 on Monday, a 28 day low, having reached 15.64 on 08/22, the highest in the database (the ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market). Tuesday’s ratio was almost unchanged at 8.58. The sharp decline in the ratio on Monday was due to a large increase in Bear fund assets.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (unch), Nasdaq 38% (from 39%), R2000 34% (from 35%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – on Tuesday the index printed its lowest level since January 2015.
Gold: for fifrteen days GLD has been printing above 119.84, the maj poc in a strong LT price location. On Tuesday Gold reached its highest level since November.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. In the ST, and in the ST as long as charts holds above 1.2884, the 5mon poc, (which it currently is) it is in a strong price location.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there and has on Tuesday reached its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY – Key Chart: 111.30 is the 2year poc – Chart prints below that level in a weak price location. The 108.87 Support (1/2R off 2016 low) was broken on Tuesday but chart quickly recovered.
click to enlarge graphic
