emini analysis 1st September 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please read previous highlighted comments. Following Wednesday’s Aggressive Buying, Thursday generated a higher Value Area above 2457.50, the minor three month Value Area High, and as I wrote yesterday “price acceptance at this higher level would suggest another distribution (up) has begun”. As long as ES holds above the 2436.50 poc it is in a strong LT price location.
Pulse Chart confirmation would be daily price momentum for SPY turning positive and the Nyse Breadth indicator turning green (currently neutral).
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: Note – My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio fell to 8.54 on Monday, a 28 day low, having reached 15.64 on 08/22, the highest in the database (the ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market). Thursday’s ratio was higher at 12.07.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50% (from 44%), Nasdaq 46% (from 41%), R2000 43% (from 37%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – on Tuesday the index printed its lowest level since January 2015. Rallied for two days but has so far failed to test the Resistance at 93.41.
Gold: On Thursday GLD reached its highest level since October.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak price location.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2780, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. And in the ST as long as charts holds above 1.2884, the 5mon poc, it is in a strong price location. Currently price is above that level.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. On Tuesday chart reached its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY – Key Chart: 111.30 is the 2year poc – Chart prints below that level in a weak price location. The 108.87 Support (1/2R off 2016 low) was broken on Tuesday but chart quickly recovered.
click graphic to enlarge
